对抗自然 整合地球科学与经济学 地震灾害 Playing Against Nature 英文原版
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作者Seth Stein
出版社AGU
ISBN9781118620823
出版时间2014-05
印刷时间2014-05
印数1千册
装帧精装
开本18开
纸张轻型纸
页数280页
字数1千字
定价982元
上书时间2024-12-11
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基本信息
Series:Wiley Works
Format:Hardback 280 pages
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc
Imprint:American Geophysical Union
ISBN:9781118620823
Published:23 May 2014
Weight:735g
Dimensions:252 x 178 (mm)
页面参数仅供参考，具体以实物为准
书籍简介
保护社会免受自然灾害的影响是一场高风险的对抗自然的游戏，涉及到艰难的决定。一个发展中国家应该如何分配其预算，是为没有学校的城镇建造学校，还是使现有的学校抗震？是建造堤坝来防止洪水，还是阻止在危险地区的发展更有意义？是让医院抗震，还是将资金用于病人护理，能挽救更多生命？当--如发生在意大利拉奎拉和加州猛犸湖--存在即将发生的地震或火山爆发的真实但微小的风险时，科学家应该告诉公众什么？ 飓风、地震和海啸表明，社会往往不能很好地处理这种选择。有时，大自然让我们感到惊讶，当地震、飓风或洪水比详细的危险评估所预期的更大或有更大的影响。在其他情况下，大自然出乎我们的意料，尽管采取了昂贵的减灾措施，还是造成了巨大的破坏，或者使我们把有限的资源转用于减轻被高估的危险。大部分问题来自于这样一个事实：制定有效的自然灾害政策需要结合科学、经济学和风险分析来分析问题，并在未来非常不确定的情况下探索不同选项的成本和效益。由于减灾政策的选择通常没有经过这样的分析，结果往往令人失望。本书使用一般原则和案例研究来探讨我们如何通过对自然灾害问题采取综合观点来做得更好，而不是单独对待相关的地球科学、工程、经济学和政策制定。每一章末尾都有发人深省的问题，邀请读者直面其中的复杂问题。
读者群： 对与自然灾害相关的地球科学、工程、经济或政策问题感兴趣的教师、研究人员、从业人员和学生。适用于高水平的本科生或研究生课程。
Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when – as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California – there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing. This book uses general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues involved.
Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses.
作者简介
西北大学地质科学Deering教授Seth Stein是一位对大地震科学和减轻地震灾害感兴趣的地震学家。他曾被授予美国地球物理学会的詹姆斯-B-麦克尔文奖、美国地质学会的乔治-沃勒德奖、欧洲地球科学联盟的斯蒂芬-穆勒奖、皇家天文学会的普莱斯奖和洪堡基金会研究奖。
已故的杰罗姆-斯坦恩是布朗大学的伊士曼经济学教授，他的兴趣包括决策理论和公共政策的形成。
Seth Stein, Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern University, is a seismologist interested in the science of large earthquakes and earthquake hazard mitigation. He has been awarded the James B. Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Price Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society and a Humboldt Foundation Research Award.
The late Jerome Stein, who was Eastman Professor of Economics at Brown University, had interests including decision theory and formation of public policy.
目录
部分目录，仅供参考
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiv
Note on Further Reading and Sources xvi
About the Companion Website xviii
1 A Tricky, High-Stakes Game 1
1.1 Where We Are Today 1
1.2 What We Need to Do Better 6
1.3 How Can We Do Better? 14
Questions 17
Further Reading and Sources 19
References 20
2 When Nature Won 22
2.1 The Best-Laid Plans 22
2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong 24
2.3 How Mitigation Fared 30
2.4 The Challenges Ahead 32
Questions 35
Further Reading and Sources 35
References 36
3 Nature Bats Last 38
3.1 Prediction Is Hard 38
3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings 40
3.3 Earthquake Prediction 45
3.4 Chaos 50
Questions 53
Further Reading and Sources 54
References 55
4 Uncertainty and Probability 57
4.1 Basic Ideas 57
4.2 Compound Events 60
4.3 The Gaussian Distribution 64
4.4 Probability vs Statistics 68
4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties 70
Questions 72
Further Reading and Sources 73
References 74
5 Communicating What We Know and What We Don’t 75
5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties 75
5.2 Precision and Accuracy 81
5.3 Testing Forecasts 83
5.4 Communicating Forecasts 86
Questions 93
Further Reading and Sources 94
References 95
6 Human Disasters 97
6.1 Assessing Hazards 97
6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections 99
6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster 101
6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink 105
6.5 Disaster Chic 109
Questions 110
Further Reading and Sources 112
References 113
7 How Much Is Enough? 115
7.1 Rational Policy Making 115
7.2 Lessons from National Defense 119
7.3 Making Choices 122
7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion 124
7.5 Present and Future Value 126
7.6 Valuing Lives 129
7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation 131
Questions 132
Further Reading and Sources 134
References 135Contents ix
8 Guessing the Odds 136
8.1 Big Events Are Rare 136
8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models 140
8.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models 145
Questions 149
Further Reading and Sources 150
References 150
9 When’s the Next Earthquake? 151
9.1 A Very Tough Problem 151
9.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation 152
9.3 Earthquake Cycle Model 158
9.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities 168
9.5 Shaky Probabilities 170
Questions 172
Further Reading and Sources 174
References 175
10 Assessing Hazards 176
10.1 Five Tough Questions 176
10.2 Uncertainties 177
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