中国沿海海平面变化影响评估9787521005448

第一篇 海平面变化事实、归因及预测综 述 ······································································································ 2第1章 海平面变化事实分析 ····································································· 31.1 海平面变化观测 ···················································································· 31.2 海平面变化事实 ···················································································· 41.2.1 优选及区域海平面变化 ·································································· 41.2.2 中国沿海海平面变化 ····································································· 61.3 海平面变化归因 ···················································································131.3.1 优选海平面变化归因 ····································································131.3.2 中国海平面变化归因 ····································································14第2章 未来海平面上升预测 ····································································202.1 统计预测 ····························································································202.1.1 预测方法 ···················································································202.1.2 预测结果 ···················································································222.2 数值模型预测 ······················································································252.2.1 模型和气候情景 ··········································································252.2.2 数据集构建 ················································································262.2.3 模型评估 ···················································································272.2.4 预测结果 ···················································································29第3章 典型潮汐特征变化 ·······································································333.1 主要分潮振幅长期变化 ··········································································382中国沿海海平面变化影响评估3.1.1 M2和S2分潮 ················································································383.1.2 K1和O1分潮 ················································································403.1.3 Sa和Ssa分潮 ·················································································433.2 主要潮汐特征值 ···················································································453.2.1 平均高潮位 ················································································453.2.2 平均低潮位 ················································································473.2.3 平均潮差 ···················································································48第4章 特别事件 ·····················································································504.1 特别大风 ····························································································504.2 增减水 ·······························································································514.2.1 增减水长期变化 ··········································································514.2.2 斜风暴潮 ···················································································564.3 极值水位 ····························································································604.3.1 极值水位长期变化 ·······································································604.3.2 极值水位预测 ·············································································624.3.3 重现期极值水位 ··········································································644.4 波浪 ··································································································694.4.1 波浪变化事实 ·············································································694.4.2 水位-波高联合分布 ·····································································71第二篇 中国沿海海平面变化影响状况综 述 ·····································································································78第5章 海岸带灾害 ··················································································805.1 风暴潮灾害 ·························································································805.1.1 风暴潮灾害特征 ··········································································805.1.2 海平面上升与风暴潮 ····································································845.2 海岸侵蚀 ····························································································895.3 海水入侵与土壤盐渍化 ··········································································935.3.1 海水入侵与土壤盐渍化分布特征 ·····················································943目 录5.3.2 典型区域海水入侵变化特征 ···························································965.4 咸潮入侵 ····························································································985.5 滨海城市洪涝 ···················································································· 102第6章 海岸防护工程 ············································································ 1056.1 我国海堤现状 ···················································································· 1056.1.1 我国海堤现状 ··········································································· 1056.1.2 海平面上升与海堤 ······································································1116.2 我国生态海堤现状 ·············································································· 114第7章 滨海生态系统 ············································································ 1187.1 滨海湿地 ·························································································· 1187.1.1 我国滨海湿地分布概况 ······························································· 1187.1.2 海平面上升对滨海湿地的影响 ······················································ 1217.2 红树林 ····························································································· 1237.2.1 我国红树林分布概况 ·································································· 1237.2.2 海平面上升对红树林的影响 ························································· 1237.3 海草床 ····························································································· 125第三篇 海平面上升影响专题评估综 述 ··································································································· 128第8章 海平面上升淹没风险评估 ··························································· 1298.1 数据来源 ·························································································· 1298.2 评估方法 ·························································································· 1298.3 评估场景 ·························································································· 1308.4 影响评估 ·························································································· 1318.4.1 影响区域 ················································································· 1318.4.2 社会经济影响 ··········································································· 1384中国沿海海平面变化影响评估第9章 海岸带脆弱性评估 ····································································· 1649.1 数据来源 ·························································································· 1649.2 海岸带脆弱性评估方法 ········································································ 1649.2.1 指标体系 ················································································· 1649.2.2 评估模型 ················································································· 1669.3 海岸带脆弱性评估及区划 ····································································· 1679.3.1 海岸带脆弱性评估 ····································································· 1679.3.2 脆弱性区划 ·············································································· 171第10章 海岸侵蚀评估 ·········································································· 17910.1 数据来源 ························································································· 17910.2 海岸侵蚀评估方法 ············································································· 17910.2.1 海岸侵蚀脆弱性评估 ······························································· 17910.2.2 海平面上升与海岸侵蚀 ···························································· 18110.3 情景 ······························································································· 18310.4 海岸侵蚀影响评估 ············································································· 18610.4.1 全国海岸侵蚀脆弱性评估 ························································· 18610.4.2 海岸侵蚀个例研究 ·································································· 192第11章 示范区（深圳市）风暴潮影响评估 ··········································· 21811.1 数据来源 ························································································· 21811.2 评估方法 ························································································· 22211.3 气候情景 ························································································· 22711.4 影响评估 ························································································· 22711.4.1 风暴潮模拟 ············································································ 22711.4.2 影响区域 ··············································································· 23411.4.3 城市安全影响 ········································································· 237第12章 海岸工程影响评估 ··································································· 24612.1 沿海堤防防护标准影响评估 ································································· 2465目 录12.1.1 海堤防护标准现状 ·································································· 24612.1.2 海堤防护标准影响评估 ···························································· 24612.2 对典型工程的影响 ············································································· 25612.2.1 对防洪排涝工程的影响 ···························································· 25612.2.2 对港口与码头工程的影响 ························································· 25612.2.3 对核电工程的影响 ·································································· 257第四篇 海平面上升应对策略综 述 ··································································································· 260第13章 海平面上升应对策略 ································································ 2611