Everything Is Obvious：*Once You Know the Answer

图书标准信息

• 作者 Duncan J. Watts（邓肯·J·瓦特） 著
• 出版社 Random House US
• 出版时间 2011-03
• 版次 1
• ISBN 9780385531689
• 定价 191.00元
• 装帧 精装
• 开本 16开
• 纸张 胶版纸
• 页数 352页
• 正文语种 英语

【内容简介】

WhyistheMonaLisathemostfamouspaintingintheworld?WhydidFacebooksucceedwhenothersocialnetworkingsitesfailed?DidthesurgeinIraqreallyleadtolessviolence?HowmuchcanCEO'simpacttheperformanceoftheircompanies?Anddoeshigherpayincentivizepeopletoworkhard?

Ifyouthinktheanswerstothesequestionsareamatterofcommonsense,thinkagain.AssociologistandnetworksciencepioneerDuncanWattsexplainsinthisprovocativebook,theexplanationsthatwegivefortheoutcomesthatweobserveinlife—explanationthatseemobviousonceweknowtheanswer—arelessusefulthantheyseem.

Drawingonthelatestscientificresearch,alongwithawealthofhistoricalandcontemporaryexamples,Wattsshowshowcommonsensereasoningandhistoryconspiretomisleadusintobelievingthatweunderstandmoreabouttheworldofhumanbehaviorthanwedo;andinturn,whyattemptstopredict,manage,ormanipulatesocialandeconomicsystemssooftengoawry.

Itseemsobvious,forexample,thatpeoplerespondtoincentives;yetpolicymakersandmanagersalikefrequentlyfailtoanticipatehowpeoplewillrespondtotheincentivestheycreate.Socialtrendsoftenseemtohavebeendrivenbycertaininfluentialpeople;yetmarketershavebeenunabletoidentifythese"influencers"inadvance.Andalthoughsuccessfulproductsorcompaniesalwaysseeminretrospecttohavesucceededbecauseoftheiruniquequalities,predictingthequalitiesofthenexthitproductorhotcompanyisnotoriouslydifficultevenforexperiencedprofessionals.

Onlybyunderstandinghowandwhencommonsensefails,Wattsargues,canweimprovehowweplanforthefuture,aswellasunderstandthepresent—anargumentthathasimportantimplicationsinpolitics,business,andmarketing,aswellasinscienceandeverydaylife.

【作者简介】

DuncanJ.Watts,aprofessorofsociologyatColumbiaUniversity,isaprincipalresearchscientistatYahoo!Research.AformerofficerintheRoyalAustralianNavy,heholdsaPh.D.inTheoreticalandAppliedMechanicsfromCornellUniversity.HeistheauthorofSixDegrees:TheScienceofaConnectedAge(Norton,2003).HelivesinNewYorkCity.