The Black Swan：Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

图书标准信息

• 作者 Nassim Nicholas Taleb（纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布） 著
• 出版社 Random House
• 出版时间 2010-05
• 版次 1
• ISBN 9780812973815
• 定价 134.40元
• 装帧 平装
• 开本 32开
• 纸张 胶版纸
• 页数 480页
• 正文语种 英语
• 丛书 Incerto

【内容简介】

Ablackswanisanevent,positiveornegative,thatisdeemedimprobableyetcausesmassiveconsequences.Inthisgroundbreakingandpropheticbook,TalebshowsinaplayfulwaythatBlackSwaneventsexplainalmosteverythingaboutourworld,andyetwe—especiallytheexperts—areblindtothem.Inthissecondedition,Talebhasaddedanewessay,OnRobustnessandFragility,whichofferstoolstonavigateandexploitaBlackSwanworld.

【作者简介】

NassimNicholasTalebhasdevotedhislifetoimmersinghimselfinproblemsofluck,randomness,humanerror,probability,andthephilosophyofknowledge.Hemanagedtotransformhisinterestsintothreesuccessfulcareers,asamanofletters,businessman-trader-riskmanager,anduniversityprofessor.Althoughhespendsmostofhistimeasaflaneur,meditatingincafésacrosstheplanet,heiscurrentlyDistinguishedProfessoratNewYorkUniversity'sPolytechnicInstituteandPrincipalofUniversa.HisbooksFooledbyRandomnessandTheBlackSwanhavebeenpublishedin31languages.Heiswidelyrecognizedastheforemostthinkeronprobabilityanduncertainty.TaleblivesmostlyinNewYork.

【目录】

Prologue

PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW  WE VALIDATION

PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

PART FOUR:THE END

POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCALAND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS