目录 Prefacexv Introduction1 What Is International Economics About?3 The Gains from Trade4 The Pattern of Trade5 How Much Trade?5 Balance of Payments6 Exchange Rate Determination6 International Policy Coordination7 The International Capital Market8 International Economics: Trade and Money8 Part 1Exchange rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics11 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments11 The National Income Accounts13 National Product and National Income14 Capital Depreciation and International Transfers15 Gross Domestic Product15 National Income Accounting for an Open Economy16 Consumption16 Investment16 Government Purchases17 The National Income Identity for an Open Economy17 An Imaginary Open Economy18 The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness18 Saving and the Current Account21 Private and Government Saving22 box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit23 The Balance of Payments Accounts24 Examples of Paired Transactions25 The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity27 The Current Account, Once Again27 The Capital Account28 The Finan Account29 Net Errors and Omissions30 Offi Reserve Transactions30 case study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor32 Summary35 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach40 Exchange Rates and International Transactions41 vii
Domestic and Foreign Prices42 Exchange Rates and Relative Prices43 The Foreign Exchange Market44 The Actors44 box: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars45 Characteristics of the Market46 Spot Rates and Forward Rates48 Foreign Exchange Swaps49 Futures and Options49 The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets50 Assets and Asset Returns50 box: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia51 Risk and Liquidity53 Interest Rates54 Exchange Rates and Asset Returns55 A Simple Rule56 Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market58 Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market59 Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition59 How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns60 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate61 Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium64 The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate64 The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate65 case study: What Explains the Carry Trade?66 Summary68 Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity74 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates77 Money Defined: A Brief Review78 Money as a Medium of Exchange78 Money as a Unit of Account78 Money as a Store of Value79 What Is Money?79 How the Money Supply Is Determined79 The Demand for Money by Individuals80 Expected Return80 Risk81 Liquidity81 Aggregate Money Demand81 The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply and Demand83 Equilibrium in the Money Market83 Interest Rates and the Money Supply85 Output and the Interest Rate86 The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run87 Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate87 U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate89 Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate90 Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run92 Money and Money Prices92 The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes93
Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels94 Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run95 Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics96 Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility96 box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe98 Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate99 Exchange Rate Overshooting101 case study: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation? The Implications of Inflation Targeting103 Summary106 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run111 The Law of One Price112 Purchasing Power Parity113 The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price113 Absolute PPP and Relative PPP114 A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP115 The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach115 Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP117 The Fisher Effect118 Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price121 Explaining the Problems with PPP123 Trade Barriers and Nontradables123 Departures from Free Competition124 Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement125 box: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price125 PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run128 case study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries129 Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates130 The Real Exchange Rate131 Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate133 box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops133 Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium136 International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate138 Real Interest Parity139 Summary141 Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach146 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run149 Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy150 Determinants of Consumption Demand150 Determinants of the Current Account151 How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account152 How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account153 The Equation of Aggregate Demand153 The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand153 Real Income and Aggregate Demand154 How Output Is Determined in the Short Run155 Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule156
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium156 Deriving the DD Schedule157 Factors that Shift the DD Schedule157 Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule160 Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium161 Deriving the AA Schedule162 Factors that Shift the AA Schedule163 Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA Schedules Together164 Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy166 Monetary Policy166 Fiscal Policy167 Policies to Maintain Full Employment168 Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation169 Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy170 A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply171 Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply172 A Permanent Fiscal Expansion173 Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account175 Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics176 The J-Curve176 Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation178 The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics179 The Liquidity Trap179 case study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier?182 Summary183 Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand188 Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates of Trade Elasticities190 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention193 Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?194 Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply195 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply195 Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply197 Sterilization198 The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply198 How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate199 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate200 Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate200 A Diagrammatic Analysis201 Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate202 Monetary Policy203 Fiscal Policy204 Changes in the Exchange Rate205 Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes206 Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight207 Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention210 Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention210 case study: Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland211 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability213
The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability213 Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention215 Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System216 The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard216 The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center217 The Gold Standard218 The Mechanics of a Gold Standard218 Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard218 Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard219 The Bimetallic Standard220 The Gold Exchange Standard220 case study: The Demand for International Reserves221 Summary225 Appendix 1: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market with Imperfect Asset Substitutability230 Demand230 Supply231 Equilibrium231 Appendix 2: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises233 Part 2 International Macroeconomic Policy236 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview236 Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy237 Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability238 External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account239 box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand241 Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma245 International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914246 Origins of the Gold Standard246 External Balance under the Gold Standard247 The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism247 The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality248 Internal Balance under the Gold Standard249 case study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Conflict over America’s Monetary Standard during the 1890s250 The Interwar Years, 1918–1939251 The Fleeting Return to G
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