Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323 13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: 350 384 414 451 An Asset Approach 15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493 Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy 534 534 587 616 19 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview 20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience 21 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis 22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 649 Mathematical Postscripts Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification 691 Credits 698 Index 699 viii ix Contents Preface xvi Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323 13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323 The National Income Accounts325 National Product and National Income326 Capital Depreciation and International Transfers327 Gross Domestic Product327 National Income Accounting for an Open Economy328 Consumption328 Investment328 Government Purchases329 The National Income Identity for an Open Economy329 An Imaginary Open Economy329 The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness330 Saving and the Current Account332 Private and Government Saving333 CASE STUDY: Government Deficit Reduction May Not Increase the Current Account Surplus334 The Balance of Payments Accounts336 Examples of Paired Transactions337 The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity338 The Current Account, Once Again339 The Capital Account340 The Financial Account340 Net Errors and Omissions341 Official Reserve Transactions342 CASE STUDY: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor343 Summary346 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 350 Exchange Rates and International Transactions351 Domestic and Foreign Prices351 Exchange Rates and Relative Prices353 The Foreign Exchange Market354 The Actors354 Characteristics of the Market355 Spot Rates and Forward Rates356 Foreign Exchange Swaps358 Futures and Options358 The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets358 Assets and Asset Returns359 BOX: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia360 Risk and Liquidity362 Interest Rates362 Exchange Rates and Asset Returns364 A Simple Rule364 Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market366 Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market367 Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition367 How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns368 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate369 Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium371 The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate372 The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate373 x Contents CASE STUDY: What Explains the Carry Trade?374 Summary376 Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity381 384 Money Defined: A Brief Review385 Money as a Medium of Exchange385 Money as a Unit of Account385 Money as a Store of Value386 What Is Money?386 How the Money Supply Is Determined386 The Demand for Money by Individuals387 Expected Return387 Risk388 Liquidity388 Aggregate Money Demand388 The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply and Demand390 Equilibrium in the Money Market390 Interest Rates and the Money Supply392 Output and the Interest Rate393 The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run393 Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate394 U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate395 Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate396 Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run398 Money and Money Prices399 The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes399 Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels400 Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run401 Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics402 Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility402 BOX: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Bolivia404 Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate404 Exchange Rate Overshooting407 CASE STUDY: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation? The Implications of Inflation Targeting408 Summary411 414 The Law of One Price415 Purchasing Power Parity416 The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One Price416 Absolute PPP and Relative PPP417 A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP418 The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach418 15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP420 The Fisher Effect421 Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price424 Explaining the Problems with PPP425 Trade Barriers and Nontradables426 Departures from Free Competition427 Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement427 Contents xi BOX: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price428 PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run430 CASE STUDY: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries431 Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates433 The Real Exchange Rate434 Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate435 BOX: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops436 Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium438 International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate440 Real Interest Parity442 Summary443 Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate Under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach448 17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 451 Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy452 Determinants of Consumption Demand452 Determinants of the Current Account453 How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account454 How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account454 The Equation of Aggregate Demand455 The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand455 Real Income and Aggregate Demand455 How Output Is Determined in the Short Run456 Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule458 Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium458 Deriving the DD Schedule459 Factors That Shift the DD Schedule459 Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule462 Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium462 Deriving the AA Schedule464 Factors That Shift the AA Schedule464 Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA Schedules Together465 Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy467 Monetary Policy468 Fiscal Policy468 Policies to Maintain Full Employment469 Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation471 Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy472 A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472 Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472 A Permanent Fiscal Expansion474 xii Contents Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account476 Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics477 The J-Curve477 Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation479 BOX: Exchange Rates and the Current Account480 The Liquidity Trap481 Summary484 Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand488 Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates of Trade Elasticities490 18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493 Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?494 Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply495 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply495 Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply497 Sterilization497 The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply498 How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate499 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate499 Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate500 A Diagrammatic Analysis501 Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate502 Monetary Policy502 Fiscal Policy503 Changes in the Exchange Rate504 Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes506 Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight506 Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention509 Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention509 BOX: Brazil’s 1998–1999 Balance of Payments Crisis510
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