概率风险分析

图书标准信息

• 作者 T.Bedford、R.Cooke 编
• 出版社 世界图书出版公司
• 出版时间 2003-09
• 版次 1
• ISBN 9787506259453
• 定价 78.00元
• 装帧 平装
• 开本 24开
• 纸张 胶版纸
• 页数 393页

【内容简介】

Probabilisticriskanalysisdiffersfromotherareasofappliedsciencebecauseitattemptstomodeleventsthat（almost）neveroccur.Whensuchaneventdoesoccurthentheunderlyingsystemsandorganizationsareoftenchangedsothattheeventcannotoccurinthesamewayagain.Becauseofthis,theprobabilisticriskanalystmusthaveastrongconceptualandmathematicalbackground.Thefirstchaptersurveysthehistoryofriskanalysisapplications.Chapter2explainswhyprobabilityisusedtomodeluncertaintyandwhyweadoptasubjectivedefinitionofprobabilityinspiteofitslimitations.Chapters3and4providethetechnicalbackgroundinprobabilityandstatisticsthatisusedintherestofthebook.Theremainingchaptersaremore-or-lesstechnicallyindependentofeachother,exceptthatChapter7mustfollowChapter6,and14shouldfollow13.Thefinalchaptergivesabroadoverviewofriskmeasurementproblemsandlooksintothefutureofriskanalysis.

【目录】

Illustrations
Tables
Preface
PartⅠ:Introduction
1Probabilisticriskanalysis
1.1Historicaloverview
1.1.1Theaerospacesector
1.1.2Thenuclearsector
1.1.3Thechemicalprocesssector
1.1.4Thelessrecentpast
1.2Whatisthedefinitionofrisk?
1.3Scopeofprobabilisticriskanalyses
1.4Riskanalysisresources
1.4.1Importantjournals
1.4.2Handbooks
1.4.3Professionalorganizations
1.4.4Internet

PartⅡ:Theoreticalissuesandbackground
2Whatisuncertainty?
2.1Themeaningofmeaning
2.2Themeaningofuncertainty
2.3Probabilityaxioms
2.3.1Interpreations
2.4Savage'stheoryrationaldecision
2.4.1Savage'saxioms
2.4.2Quantitativeprobability
……
PartⅢ:Systemanalysisandquantification
PartⅣ:Uncertaintymodelingandriskmeasurement
Bibliography
Index