回到教育的未来：OECD关于学校教育的四种图景

lopment，简称OECD）于2020年9月发布报告《回到教育的未来：OECD关于学校教育的四种图景》（Back to the Future of Education：Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling）。这是OECD“趋势塑造教育”（Trends Shaping Education）系列的配套报告。报告以多元的思维和视角展望未来教育的四种图景：

学校教育扩展（Schooling Extended）：接受正规教育的人数持续增加。国际合作和技术进步支持更加个性化的学习，而学校教育的结构和过程仍然存在。

教育外包（Education Outsourced）：随着社会更加直接地参与到公民教育中，传统的学校教育系统逐渐瓦解。以数字技术作为关键驱动力，学习安排变得更加多样化、私有化和灵活。

学校作为学习中心（Schools as Learning Hubs）：学校依然存在，但多样化和实验是常态。拆除学校“围墙”，将学校与社区联系起来，有利于不断改变学习、公民参与和社会创新的形式。

无边界学习（Learn-as-you-go）：教育随时随地都在进行。当社会完全依靠机器力量时，正规学习和非正规学习不再有区别。

 本书的目的不在于倡导或建议，而在于促进人们的思考，激发人们的想象。任何关心教育未来的人都可以从中获得启发。

作者

经 济 合 作 与 发 展 组 织（Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development，简称OECD）是各国政府合作商讨应对经济、社会和环境全球化

挑战的特别组织。OECD还是促进各国相互理解，帮助各国政府应对新局势、

新问题的前线力量，例如企业管治、信息经济以及人口老龄化的挑战。该组织

提供了一个平台，让各国政府能够相互比较政策经验，寻求共同问题的答案，

共同确定良好实践，以及致力于协调国内和国际政策。

OECD成员国包括澳大利亚、奥地利、比利时、加拿大、智利、哥伦比亚、哥 斯达黎加、捷克共和国、丹麦、爱沙尼亚、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、匈牙利、冰岛、 爱尔兰、以色列、意大利、日本、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、韩国、卢森堡、墨西哥、荷兰、 新西兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克共和国、斯洛文尼亚、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、土耳其、英国和美国。欧盟委员会参与OECD的工作。

OECD的出版物广泛传播该组织收集的统计数据，内容涉及经济、社会和

环境问题的研究结果，以及其成员国达成一致的协议、指导方针和标准。

译者

窦卫霖，华东师范大学外语学院教授，博士生导师，翻译专业责任教授，跨文化交流学科带头人。兼任上海翻译硕士教育指导委员会委员、中国话语分析研究协会常务理事、上海市外文学会理事，英国剑桥大学英语学院、美国佛罗里达A & M大学商学院和美国圣奥拉夫学院访问学者。主要研究方向为跨文化交际与翻译、跨文化商务沟通、话语分析、对外传播等。主持并完成8项和省部级科研项目，在《外语教学与研究》《中国翻译》《外国语》《外语教学理论与实践》《外语与外语教学》《现代传播》等核心期刊上发表论文几十篇，出版专著、译著及教材十余部。具有近40年高校英语教学经验和丰富的跨国访学经历，主讲的“跨文化交际”课程获精品网络课程和中国大学资源共享课程。

面对不确定的未来，不确定的教育，OECD组织编写了《回到教育的未来：OECD关于学校教育的四种图景》。它以多元的思维和视角对未来教育进行了描绘、想象，以启发大家关注和思考。当然，这种描绘和想象不是毫无根据的，也并没有脱离现有教育的基础。

虽然我们无法准确预测甚至不能在方向上预测未来教育的样子，但我们还是可以比较有信心地说，在未来教育中，这样一些特征会越来越凸显出来，比如个性化、无边界、学习中心、人机协同，等等。基于现实，又超越现实，以积极的心态去拥抱未来，我们就能够以乐观的精神面对变化，以主动求变的态度共创未来。

 华东师范大学终身教授 袁振国

纲要 ······················································································1 

为什么是图景？·································································1

了解现在有助于我们思考未来 ··············································2

学校的未来会怎样？七大矛盾和悖论 ·····································2

章 回到教育的未来：OECD关于学校教育的四种图景 ··············5 

面向变化中的世界的教育 ····················································6

多重未来··········································································7

OECD关于未来学校教育的初图景 ······································8

本书：OECD关于未来学校教育的四种图景 ······························9

结语·············································································· 10

参考文献········································································ 11

第二章 图景：用户指南 ························································· 13 

导言·············································································· 142

为什么要考虑未来？ ························································ 14

怎样看待未来？······························································· 15

如何运用图景? ································································ 21

注释·············································································· 24

参考文献········································································ 24

第三章 盘点当下：教育与学校教育的趋势 ································· 25 

导言·············································································· 26

前端教育模式继续扩大 ····················································· 26

面向变化中的世界的学习 ·················································· 31

教师、教学和教师政策 ······················································· 35

教育治理的变革······························································· 39

结语·············································································· 42

参考文献········································································ 43

第四章 OECD关于未来学校教育的图景···································· 53 

导言·············································································· 54

展望未来：OECD关于学校教育的四种图景 ···························· 55

图景1：学校教育扩展 ······················································· 59

图景2：教育外包 ····························································· 63

图景3：学校作为学习中心 ················································· 68

图景4：无边界学习 ·························································· 73

参考文献········································································ 78

第五章 回到未来：成果、影响和悖论 ········································· 81 

导言·············································································· 82

连续性与非连续性：图景的维度和影响 ································· 82

教育的未来：目标、矛盾和悖论 ············································ 92

结语·············································································103

参考文献·······································································105