Since 2014, China, drawing upon the experience and practices of countries with mature market economy to guide market expectation, has convened the China Agricultural Outlook Conference and released the China Agricultural Outlook Report for three consecutive years; in particular, the China Agricultural Outlook (2015-2024) released in the name of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee, Ministry of Agriculture in 2015 has provided important reference for domestic market players and relevant sectors regarding adjusting the expectation of agricultural market. The year 2016 marks the opening of the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period and is also the key stage for supply-side structural reforms in agriculture. The further improvement of the system of China agricultural outlook and the release of the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025) is an important measure to implement a range of important development strategies and arrangements, including Several Opinions of the Central Committee of CPC and the State Council on Promoting the Reform of Price Mechanism, Several Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the Implementation of New Concepts on the Development and the Acceleration of the Agricultural Modernization for the Realization of Moderate Prosperity in All Respects, Guidance of the State Council on Advancing the Internet Plus Initiative and Circular of the State Council on Printing and Issuing the Action Outline for Promoting Big Data Development, and is of crucial importance to review the 12th FYP period and plan for agricultural development in the 13th FYP period.The basic conclusion of the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025) is the baseline projection made by experts and relevant sectors, adopting the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES), developed by the Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning Team of Agricultural Information Insitute of CAAS, on the basis of the China Agricultural Outlook (2015-2024), taking into consideration developments of market, policy, climate and macroeconomics of the previous year, and based on specific assumptions of macroeconomics, agricultural policies, climate conditions, innovation of science and technology, resource endowment and changes of international markets. Baseline data mainly comes from statistics released by China statistics departments and the agricultural market monitoring data released by agricultural departments, and also includes field investigation data accumulated by relevant research institutions. The China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025), in particular, reviewed the situation of agricultural market in China during the 12th FYP period, made projections on the features and trend of the operation of China's agricultural market during the 13th FYP period, thus will provide important reference for the development and implementation of the new FYP.The Market Early Warning Expert Committee of MOA reviewed and approved the basic conclusion of the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025). The Committee is composed of experts and academicians from the following entities: Department of Agricultural Economy, NDRC, Department of Economy and Trade, NDRC, Academy of Macroeconomic Research, NDRC, Circulation Industry Promotion Center, MOFCOM, China National Grain and Oils Information Center, Renmin University of China, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Department of Sectoral Policy and Law, MOA, Department of Market and Economic Information, MOA, Department of Development and Planning, MOA, Department of Crop Production, MOA, Department of Animal Production, MOA, Fisheries Bureau, MOA, Rural Economy Research Center, MOA, Information Center, MOA, Agricultural Trade Promotion Center, MOA, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, CAAS, and Agriculture Information Institute, CAAS. Experts of the system of industrial technologies of modern agriculture have made important contributions to the Outlook Report in terms of the provision of data and the discussion and revision of Outlook conclusions. Every chapter of the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025) has been based on years of study of product analysts and the distillation of their hard work and wisdom. To be specific, Chapter 1 Overview is authored by Li Ganqiong; Chapter 2 Cereals is written by rice analysts, Peng Chao, Zhang Huan and Gao Qiang, wheat analyst Cao Hui and corn analysts Xu Weiping and Xi Yinsheng; Chapter 3 Oilseeds and Oilseed Products is written by soybean analysts Yin Ruifeng and Xu Xuegao, oilseed analysts Zhang Wenli and Li Songlin; Chapter 4 Cotton is authored by cotton analysts Zhai Xueling and Li Xiang; Chapter 5 Sugar is edited by sugar analysts Xu Xue, Ma Kai and Ma Guangxia; Chapter 6 Vegetables is authored by vegetable analysts Li Huishang, Kong Fantao and Wang Shengwei; Chapter 7 Fruits is edited by fruit analysts Wu Jie and Zhao Junye; Chapter 8 Meat is authored by pork analysts Zhu Zengyong and Zhang Xuebiao, poultry analysts Zhang Li and Zhu Haibo and beef and mutton analysts Si Zhizhi and Qu Chunhong; Chapter 9 Poultry Eggs is written by poultry egg analysts Li Zhemin, Li Ganqiong and Zhang Chao; Chapter 10 Dairy is edited by dairy analysts Wang Dongjie and Dong Xiaoxia; Chapter 11 Aquatic Products is authored by aquatic product analysts Shen Chen, Liu Jingjing and Zhang Jingyi; and Chapter 12 Feed is written by feed analysts Zhang Qiao and Tao Sha. All staff of the Agriculture Information Institute, CAAS, led by Director Sun Tan has provided strong guarantee for the high-quality performance and smooth completion of Outlook activities for 2016. China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning Innovation Team, led by Researcher Xu Shiwei as Chief Scientist, has provided basic data system and CAMES model simulation and predication technology. Team members, including Li Ganqiong, Pan Yuehong, Zhang Yongen, Zhang Yumei, Wu Jianzhai, Wang Shengwei, Wang Dongjie, Chen Wei, Zhuang Jiayu, Liu Jiajia, Zhang Chao, Ren Yufeng, Li Yanni and Wang Yu, have done tremendous concrete and detailed work such as data calculation, report revision and Chinese-English translation. The China Agricultural Science and Technology Press has made efforts in type-setting and printing.The release of the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025), after the China Agricultural Outlook (2015-2024), by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee, MOA, signifies the fledgling of agricultural outlook activities in China and the steady and solid development of the system of global agricultural survey and analysis in China. Since market situation analysis should not only be based on the latest information of agriculture and related sectors, and market demand and supply is susceptible to uncertainties of climate, politics and policy, the China Agricultural Outlook (2016-2025) could making mistakes in its predications. We will gradually explore the establishment of mechanism for the analysis and assessment of predication deviations so as to provide more accurate information for users. We sincerely invite domestic and foreign colleagues to provide valuable opinions for improving our future studies.
Table of ContentsChapter 1 Overview 11.1 Environment of macroeconomic and social development in the future ten years 11.1.1 China's economy maintains mid to high growth rate......................................................................................................................................................... 11.1.2 Chinese population will continue to grow............................................................................................................................................................................ 41.1.3 CIP will show a trend of mild increase................................................................................................................................................................................... 91.1.4 Crude oil price will be low in the beginning and high in the end................................................................................................................................. 101.1.5 The income of urban and rural residents continues to grow........................................................................................................................................ 111.1.6 The RMB exchange rate will be steadily weakened......................................................................................................................................................... 131.2 China's agricultural development situations in the future ten years and during the 13th FYP period 141.2.1 China's agricultural development amidst rare opportunities........................................................................................................................................ 141.2.2 Major challenges for agricultural development in China................................................................................................................................................ 151.2.3 Arduous tasks for agricultural development in China..................................................................................................................................................... 15Chapter 2 Cereals 182.1 Rice 182.1.1 General outlook 182.1.2 Production outlook 192.1.3 Consumption outlook 212.1.4 Trade outlook 222.1.5 Price outlook 232.2 Wheat 232.2.1 General outlook 242.2.2 Production outlook 242.2.3 Consumption outlook 252.2.4 Trade outlook 262.2.5 Price outlook 272.3 Corn 272.3.1 General outlook 282.3.2 Production outlook 282.3.3 Consumption outlook 312.3.4 Trade outlook 322.3.5 Price outlook 33Chapter 3 Oil 343.1 Soybean 343.1.1 General outlook 343.1.2 Production outlook 353.1.3 Consumption outlook 363.1.4 Trade outlook 373.1.5 Price outlook 383.2 Oilseeds and oilseed products 393.2.1 General outlook 403.2.2 Production outlook 413.2.3 Consumption outlook 423.2.4 Trade outlook 433.2.5 Price outlook 43Chapter 4 Cotton 454.1 General outlook 454.2 Production outlook 464.3 Consumption outlook 484.4 Trade outlook 494.5 Price outlook 50Chapter 5 Sugar 525.1 General outlook 525.2 Production outlook 535.3 Consumption outlook 545.4 Trade outlook 555.5 Price outlook 56Chapter 6 Vegetables 576.1 General outlook 586.2 Production outlook 606.3 Consumption outlook 616.4 Trade outlook 636.5 Price outlook 64Chapter 7 Fruits 667.1 General outlook 667.2 Production outlook 677.3 Consumption outlook 697.4 Trade outlook 717.5 Price outlook 728.1 Pork 748.1.1 General outlook 748.1.2 Production outlook.............................................................................. 768.1.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................. 778.1.4 Trade outlook 798.1.5 Price outlook 798.2 Poultry 808.2.1 General outlook 818.2.2 Production outlook 828.2.3 Consumption outlook 838.2.4 Trade outlook 848.2.5 Price outlook 858.3 Beef and mutton 868.3.1 General outlook 868.3.2 Production outlook 878.3.3 Consumption outlook 898.3.4 Trade outlook 908.3.5 Price outlook 90Chapter 9 Poultry eggs 929.1 General outlook................................................................................. 929.2 Production outlook.............................................................................. 949.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................. 959.4 Trade outlook 979.5 Price outlook................................................................................... 97Chapter 10 Dairy 10010.1 General outlook................................................................................ 10010.2 Production outlook............................................................................. 10110.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................ 10310.4 Trade outlook.................................................................................. 10510.5 Price outlook.................................................................................. 106Chapter 11 Aquatic products 10711.1 General outlook 10711.2 Production outlook 10811.3 Consumption outlook 11111.4 Trade outlook 11311.5 Price outlook 114Chapter 12 Feed 11612.1 General outlook................................................................................ 11612.2 Production outlook............................................................................. 11712.3 Consumption outlook............................................................................ 11912.4 Price outlook.................................................................................. 121Annex: Supply-demand balance sheet of major agricultural commodities 122
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