Since14,China,drawingupontheexperienceandpracticesofcountrieswithmaturemarketeconomytoguidemarketexpectation,hasconvenedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookConferenceandreleasedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookReportforthreeconsecutiveyears;inparticular,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook(15-24)releasedinthenameoftheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MinistryofAgriculturein15hasprovidedimportantreferencefordomesticmarketyersandrelevantsectorsregardingadjustingtheexpectationofagriculturalmarket.Theyear16markstheopeningofthe13thFive-YearPlan(FYP)periodandisalsothekeystageforsupply-sidestructuralreformsinagriculture.ThefurtherimprovementofthesystemofChinaagriculturaloutlookandthereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25)isanimportantmeasuretoimplementarangeofimportantdevelopmentstrategiesandarrangements,includingSeveralOpinionsoftheCentralCommitteeofCPCandtheStateCouncilonPromotingtheReformofPriceMechanism,SeveralOpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilontheImplementationofNewConceptsontheDevelopmentandtheAccelerationoftheAgriculturalModernizationfortheRealizationofModerateProsperityinAllRespects,GuidanceoftheStateCouncilonAdvancingtheInternetPlusInitiativeandCircularoftheStateCouncilonPrintingandIssuingtheActionOutlineforPromotingBigDataDevelopment,andisofcrucialimportancetoreviewthe12thFYPperiodandnforagriculturaldevelopmentinthe13thFYPperiod.ThebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25)isthebaselineprojectionmadebyexpertsandrelevantsectors,adoptingtheChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningSystem(CAMES),developedbytheAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningTeamofAgriculturalInformationInsituteofCAAS,onthebasisoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(15-24),tintoconsiderationdevelopmentsofmarket,policy,climateandmacroeconomicsofthepreviousyear,andbasedonspecificassumptionsofmacroeconomics,agriculturalpolicies,climateconditions,innovationofscienceandtechnology,resourceendowmentandchangesofinternationalmarkets.BaselinedatamnlycomesfromstatisticsreleayChinastatisticsdepartmentsandtheagriculturalmarketmonitoringdatareleayagriculturaldepartments,andalsoincludesfieldinvestigationdataaccumulatedbyrelevantresearchinstitutions.TheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25),inparticular,reviewedthesituationofagriculturalmarketinChinaduringthe12thFYPperiod,madeprojectionsonthefeaturesandtrendoftheoperationofChina'sagriculturalmarketduringthe13thFYPperiod,thuswillprovideimportantreferenceforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthenewFYP.TheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommitteeofMOAreviewedandapprovedthebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25).TheCommitteeiscomposedofexpertsandacademiciansfromthefollowingentities:DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomy,NDRC,DepartmentofEconomyandTrade,NDRC,AcademyofMacroeconomicResearch,NDRC,CirculationIndustryPromotionCenter,MOFCOM,ChinaNationalGrnandOilsInformationCenter,RenminUniversityofChina,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS),UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics,ShanghJiaoTongUniversity,DepartmentofSectoralPolicyandLaw,MOA,DepartmentofMarketandEconomicInformation,MOA,DepartmentofDevelopmentandPlanning,MOA,DepartmentofCropProduction,MOA,DepartmentofAnimalProduction,MOA,FisheriesBureau,MOA,RuralEconomyResearchCenter,MOA,InformationCenter,MOA,AgriculturalTradePromotionCenter,MOA,InstituteofAgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment,CAAS,andAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS.ExpertsofthesystemofindustrialtechnologiesofmodernagriculturehavemadeimportantcontributionstotheOutlookReportintermsoftheprovisionofdataandthediscussionandrevisionofOutlookconclusions.EverychapteroftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25)haeenbasedonyearsofstudyofproductanalystsandthedistillationoftheirhardworkandwisdom.Tobespecific,Chapter1OverviewisauthoredbyLiGanqiong;Chapter2Cerealsiswrittenbyriceanalysts,PengChao,ZhangHuanandGaoQiang,wheatanalystCaoHuiandcornanalystsXuWeipingandXiYinsheng;Chapter3OilseedsandOilseedProductsiswrittenbyeananalystsYinRuifengandXuXuegao,oilseedanalystsZhangWenliandLiSonglin;Chapter4CottonisauthoredbycottonanalystsZhXuelingandLiXiang;Chapter5SugariseditedbysugaranalystsXuXue,MaKandMaGuangxia;Chapter6VegetabisauthoredbyvegetableanalystsLiHuishang,KongFantaoandWangShengwei;Chapter7FruitsiseditedbyfruitanalystsWuJieandZhaoJunye;Chapter8MeatisauthoredbyporkanalystsZhuZengyongandZhangXuebiao,poultryanalystsZhangLiandZhuHboandbeefandmuttonanalystsSiZhizhiandQuChunhong;Chapter9PoultryEggsiswrittenbypoultryegganalystsLiZhemin,LiGanqiongandZhangChao;Chapter10DryiseditedbydryanalystsWangDongjieandDongXiaoxia;Chapter11AquaticProductsisauthoredbyaquaticproductanalystsShenChen,LiuJingandZhangJingyi;andChapter12FeediswrittenbyfeedanalystsZhangQiaoandTaoSha.AllstaffoftheAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS,ledbyDirectorSunTanhasprovidedstrongguaranteeforthehigh-qualityperformanceandsmoothcompletionofOutlookactivitiesfor16.ChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningInnovationTeam,ledbyResearcherXuShiweiasChiefScientist,hasprovidedbasicdatasystemandCAMESmodelsimulationandpredicationtechnology.Teammembers,includingLiGanqiong,PanYuehong,ZhangYongen,ZhangYumei,WuJianzh,WangShengwei,WangDongjie,ChenWei,ZhuangJiayu,LiuJiajia,ZhangChao,RenYufeng,LiYanniandWangYu,havedonetremendousconcreteaetledworksuchasdatacalculation,reportrevisionandChinese-Englishtranslation.TheChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyPresshasmadeeffortsintype-settingandprinting.ThereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25),aftertheChinaAgriculturalOutlook(15-24),bytheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MOA,signifiesthefledglingofagriculturaloutlookactivitiesinChinaandthesteadyandsolevelopmentofthesystemofglobalagriculturalsurveyandanalysisinChina.Sincemarketsituationanalysisshouldnotonlybebasedonthelatestinformationofagricultureandrelatedsectors,andmarketdemandandsupplyissusceptibletouncertntiesofclimate,politicsandpolicy,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook(16-25)couldmmistakesinitspredications.Wewillgraduallyexploretheelishmentofmechanismfortheanalysisandassessmentofpredicationdeviationssoastoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforusers.Wesincerelyinvitedomesticandforeigncolleaguestoprovidevaluableopinionsforimprovingourfuturestudier>
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